The stock ($TWTR) tested the declining 100-day moving average yesterday again, before reversing to the downside. This daily moving average line continues to be strong resistance as we have tested it every day since Wednesday but never
Twitter surged 22.9% on Friday. CNBC reported that Twitter had received expressions of interest from several tech and media companies and may receive a bid soon, and named Salesforce.com and Alphabet as potential buyers. Buying twitter can be profitable in various ways. Twitter’s main source of revenue is advertising. And its strength is quick information, the usefulness and impact of which is highly valuable. However, twitter’s user growth has remained stagnant and analysts suspect that if it doesn’t sell now, twitter may become the next yahoo. The user growth has been stagnant for 6 straight quarters. And advertisers aren’t spending as much as expected. RBC Capital Markets recently surveyed the advertisers and commented that Twitter’s proposition to them may be waning. Twitter is also in the middle of a strategic makeover, and is trying to change into a content – heavy platform. Though there haven’t been any bids yet, Twitter’s board has hired Goldman Sachs and Allen & Co to solicit potential buyers. According to a Bloomberg estimate, Twitter is worth $16.7 Billion.
Google and Twitter
Google’s primary revenue has been advertising. It sells ads related to people’s search queries to make its revenue. With Google’s Display ads, which is based on demographics, you can reach users who you know have an interest in your products. Facebook is currently the leader of this kind of advertising since it knows a lot of details about its user base. Google tried to initiate a social network with its Google+, but has failed. Acquiring Twitter may help Google in competing with Facebook on the social media and display advertising front.
Salesforce and Twitter
Salesforce, in the past three years has acquired companies which are focused on building software with humanlike abilities to recognize patterns, make decisions, and learn from experience. Such softwares require huge amounts of data. However, Salesforce already has full access to Twitter’s stream, due to its alliance with twitter in 2012. Salesforce recently unveiled an Artificial Intelligence software, called Einstein, which can analyse tweets and other data. Salesforce may lose access to the data if Twitter is acquired by a different company, however, if Salesforce acquires twitter, the data can be kept out of reach from its competitors.
Stockal Parameters on Twitter
Stockal Confidence Meter is at 54%. It is a proprietary algorithm, which gives us a weighted aggregate of analyst recommendations, derived from a pool of over 200 analysts. On Sunday, Canaccord Genuity restated its “Buy” rating for Twitter in a research note. On Friday, Despite RBC’s downgrade to “Underperform”, and a Price target cut to $14 from $17, TWTR traded 22.9% higher due to news of a buyout. RBC downgraded Twitter, citing waning interest from advertisers. Several other research reports have been done on twitter recently, with a majority of analyst giving a “Hold” rating. Deutsche Bank, Vetr, Suntrust Banks among others have been bullish on the stock.
Stockal Sentiment Index is 50% Positive. Sentiment Index is a proprietary algorithm, which gives us the sentiments of investors based on various social media like Twitter & Stocktwits. Stockal Social Media Pulse, which tracks the chatter on social media for stocks, is 100% higher than normal. With the news of Twitter closing in on a sale, the stock price shot up last Friday and has gained a positive momentum due to the news.
TWTR– Twitter Inc is a popular global Social Media platform.
TWTR– Twitter, Inc
|Fundamentals||Previously closed at||89.65|
|Analysts opinion||Yet another management executive, Jeff Seibert leaves the role of Product Development head to take on twitter’s new mobile app, Fabric. Recently, Twitter has seen a lot of new executives. Analyst from SunTrust Robinson Humphrey said that if twitter continues to struggle, a sale may be inevitable in the next year. Analyst confidence meter, a proprietary algorithm of Stockal gives 52% buy based on analyst ratings.|
|Sentiments||Twitter also had another Hack attack – this time the NFL account was hacked and created a hoax death message of Goodell. The sentiment index is 17.5% negative according to Stockal proprietary algorithm.|
|NA Media Pulse||The stock has 59% higher social media chatter than usual.|
- Mastercard has delivered positive dividend yield over the years.
- Entering into P2P business could be a great thing for Mastercard.
- MA has Positive earnings estimates
So far, Mastercard has been very investor friendly. Mastercard’s Return on Equities is 59.10%. In December, MasterCard announced a $4 billion repurchase program. The company considers its current valuation as relatively cheap for buying back the stock. It also paid a dividend of $0.19 on 6th April 2016.
Mastercard has consistently delivered a positive dividend yield.
Investors also expect a positive Q1 Revenue for Mastercard. The wallstreet consensus of EPS is $0.84, while the estimize consensus is higher at $.85, also we can see that the actual EPS has outperformed the wallstreet consensus 7 out of 8 times.
Many Investment firms like EQIS Capital management, Auxier Asset Management, MUFG Americas etc have stakes in Mastercard. Institutional investors own ~79% of MA shares, which is a good thing, since this means that many big firms are betting on Mastercard.
Time and again, we see that companies which evolve themselves and their product according to the changes in the industry have been the most successful ones. After its digital wallet – “MasterPass”, Mastercard is exploring the area of Peer – to-peer payment services via social media. It has a free cash flow of $45.9 Billion, and is looking out for partnerships with the social media giants Facebook or Twitter. Currently we see a lot of fintech companies like HiFrank, Prosper, Upstart, Puddle etc in the Peer-to-Peer lending market. Given the brand name, Mastercard if entered into P2P lending especially with tech giants like twitter, would definitely be successful.
Also, MA has good fundamentals, with a Return on Equity of 59.1%, EPS of $3.35. Since it has a cash rich business model, in turbulent times, it can cushion the dividends, and even debts.
According to our proprietary algorithm, which gives us the Analyst Confidence Meter, based on various fundamental parameters and analyst opinions, Mastercard has a 69% buy.
The social media pulse, which tracks various social chatter, and analyses the sentiments for the stock, shows that Mastercard has 29% lower Social chatter than usual. The News Sentiment and Revenue Prediction are positive.
Disclaimer: This blog contains an aggregated view of analysts and opinions by the author. Do not consider this as financial advice. See http://stockal.com/legalities/
TSLA– Tesla Motors Inc is engaged in design, manufacture and sales of electric vehicles and vehicle components. Tesla Motors plunged 4.9% yesterday, and an additional 2.4% pre-market today in NASDAQ.
TSLA – Tesla Motors Inc
|Fundamentals||Previously closed at||234.24|
|Analysts opinion||Tesla stock prices had seen a rise as it prepared to unveil its mass-market sedan, The Model 3. Yesterday, S&P Global Market Intelligence announced that it had downgraded TSLA to “Sell”, the stock has plunged more than 5% since the news.|
|Currently, Tesla has a forward P/E of 75.08, P/S of 7.65 and a P/B of 28.22. It has an ROI value of -19.20. It has crossed the 50 day and 200 day moving averages in a bearish manner, and is expected to be bearish in the near future.|
|Sentiments||Though the stock seems to be bearish in the near term, it has good growth prospects. Also, according to FactSet, the average target price for the stock is $236.89. These factors may drive bullish sentiments for the stock in the medium-long term.|
|Social Media Pulse||The stock has 56% higher chatter than usual.|
Getting into a trade is perhaps the toughest part about investing because of the level of research it takes. You get tips and suggestions from so many people, coming from so many directions that it’s difficult not to get utterly confused. And if you are an amateur at finance, there are dozens of “technical-sounding” terms about stocks that are not easy to wrap your head around.
There’s TV news coming from the likes of CNBC and Bloomberg with dozens of analysts constantly talking about their favourite bets. There are thousands of business and finance websites – most of them reporting the same popular news. There are umpteen newsletters and then there are hundreds of tip-giving services.
Are you an active stock investor or looking to follow the markets closely? Signup early for Stockal to get 1 year of free intelligence and insights on NASDAQ/NYSE stocks and lifetime free upgrades.
Off-late, we have been getting many questions from young folks (especially students) on whether they should invest in stocks and how they can make informed calls as they go about doing it. With the presence of apps like Robinhood and stock diversification mechanisms such as Motif Investing it has become exponentially easier to invest in stock markets than it ever was. And we believe this is a good thing. Investing could give you extra cash in the short run so it’s obviously useful. But more importantly, it teaches you discipline, forces you to keep track of your finances and broadens your horizons.
Successful investing is a long-term game. Fortunes are rarely, if ever, made “overnight”. Most successful investors will tell you about how they had several good and several bad investments over time and how their good investments outnumbered their bad ones to give them nice returns. So in essence, one has to invest often and invest actively to get to their ROI targets. This, of course, does not hold for passive investors who put their money in tax saving investments for the sake of “saving money” and not for “making money” from the markets.
In this context, as a student interested in stock investing, you are at just the right age since you have enough time to make more good than bad investment decisions. But, your path is also paved with many pitfalls and risks that can be avoided by being extra careful and knowledgeable about what to do. Here are a few quick thoughts that could help you make fewer mistakes and hit some homeruns as you go about investing actively. Do take it with a pinch of salt and feel free to add more points in the comments section, based on your personal experience if you have any.
It’s great that you’re interested. Don’t let your interest linger for a few years. Do your research and start investing early. More time on your hands will mean more potential for growth and longer-lasting appetite for investing. Considering that interest earned gets compounded over time, even a small investment will go a long way into giving you hefty returns.
This cannot be stressed enough. Today, you have research tools in your hands that just didn’t exist a few years ago. From reading organized media research and opinion – WSJ, MorningStar, Benzinga et al – to surfing through StockTwits, Twitter, Estimize and SeekingAlpha you can understand your stocks really well. Thousands of traders and analysts are talking on these networks, you just have to develop a mechanism to filter out the noise – which you will if you keep observing for a couple of months.
Investing is turning social. While there have been concerns in the past about people sharing information for the sake of their vested interests only, gradually investing as a lifestyle has managed to turn social – much like everything else in life. You do have to be extra careful not to get influenced by malicious elements (‘coz there are some) but you can avoid that by broadening your “follwings” and listening to more people than less.
Also, once you identify some genuinely good investors it’s good to discuss, build a rapport and share. Much can be learned in the process. As you develop your optimal investing strategies, share with peers to fine-tune them and get more out.
Keep a tight leash on your finances. This is not to say that you should spend carefully. This just means that if you keep track of your moneies, you will know exactly how much or how little to put in your next investment. Active investing entails several small to large investments, so unless you’re super-rich already it’s imperative that you know your incoming and outgoing very well. If you are super-rich you still have to track, though, just that your byte sizes will be bigger!
Avoid margin trading
One deterrent for margin trading is, anyway, that small ticket investors find it difficult to get-in so that you should keep you protected. But in general, as a student you want investing to fun and rewarding and not burdensome. Taking on debt is never a good idea unless you are very experienced and sure of your methods.
So, there you go. Didn’t realize this will turn out to be a “5 points for X” post! Feel free to reach out to us at firstname.lastname@example.org or drop a note in comments in case you want to discuss investing.
This is part 1 of a 2-part blog series on the imminent future of stock market investing and the way socially active investors and traders can make the most of it
Def: Stockal Media = (Stock Market + Social) Media
We define “Social”, here, as a combination of popular platforms like Twitter, StockTwits, eToro, Facebook, discussion forums like SeekingAlpha, commenting platforms like Disqus and LiveFyre, and blogging platforms like Tumblr, WordPress and Blogger. Over the past 2 years it’s has been proven, with a fair degree of certainty, that things (news, opinions etc.) reported on social media impact stock prices. The crucial thing here, as a trader, is to be able to spot whenever such information emerges.
In order to understand this better, let’s look at a few factors which tend to impact stock prices and see how information for each can be discovered on social media.
Index movement: Movement of any stock index is a representation of the movement of the underlying stocks. So if you hear enough times, from enough or highly credible social sources that the index is likely go up (or down) – making the sentiment bullish, assume that the stocks that make up the index, and similar stocks, by extension, are equally likely to move up (or down) as well. In order for you to discover such info, you need to be following credible social media handles, forum threads and blogs that talk about the index.
Company’s Financial Health: Most seasoned investors, before making a decision to buy a stock, look at the financial health of the company the stock represents. Did the last earnings call set a positive mood? Does the sales pipeline or potential customer acquisition look strong? Has the company been able to pay regular dividends? OR Is a successful CEO going to move out? Is a potential law suit brewing against the company? Is it in discussions to make a large acquisition? These are just some of the questions you need answers to – constantly.
So, how do you track? Well, determine who the key executives of the company are and follow their social handles. See if someone hints at a new customer meeting. Track what the investor relations team of the company is telling traders on platforms like Linkedin or StockTwits. Track the customer sentiment and chatter for the company’s products by looking at Twitter interactions between customers and the company’s social media support handles. Track what the company’s representatives in technology or industry events are saying.
Industry Outlook: A company’s stock price may go up or down depending on whether investors and analysts think its industry is expanding or contracting. So if a company’s financial health is fine but the industry is not growing then there’s reason to believe that the company may not be able to sustain its growth. This is likely to lead to a fall in stock price over a medium-term period.
So how do you know which way an industry is headed? Best is follow industry analysts, wherever their social presence. You are most likely to find them on SeekingAlpha and Twitter. But interestingly, a number of them blog quite heavily – such folks may not be accredited analysts from large organizations, but they have a history of making correct estimates when it comes to industry performances. These can be discovered through blogging platforms, comment threads and discussion forums. It’s almost certain that they have a reasonable Twitter presence as well.