The BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY) stock has had a great last one month – going from lower 7s to above 9 with multiple new highs all along. Just over the last week the stock has risen 5%. We thought this display of strength (after quite some time) deserves a unique approach to analysis. So, for your weekend reading pleasure, today, we’ve done something we never did earlier. For this post, we combined Technical Analysis (from the ever so correct Antonio Costa) with Stockal’s new investing parameters – Confidence Meter and Stock Sentiment. Read on for insights.
A Technical Perspective
Blackberry shares surged again over 5% last week, confirming the bullish momentum that probably won’t stop soon. The high short interest in the stock is adding to the fuel. As you can see everyday, all dips have been bought heavily. From a technical standpoint, the stock continues to show strength as the rise in volume confirms the price uptick. All major short/medium term EMAs are rising, and the stock is trading above them in a bull market. Technical indicators are looking bullish. The MACD is rising above its signal line and the RSI is moving up towards its overbought zone. The bulls are gradually regaining control over the Weekly bar chart pattern. Going forward the next levels to watch above are seen at 9.19, 9.46 and 10.44. I got the feeling that this could be the turnaround year for the stock.
Analyzing BBRY Confidence Meter
We developed the Confidence Meter to make sense of the multiple analyst opinions that are available for any stock at any point of time. Various Wall St analyst firms give their own opinions and estimates for most stocks out there. For instance, nearly 20 different firms have given estimates about BBRY – varying from Sell to Buy and with multiple opinions in-between. Our Confidence Meter takes into account each firm’s performance, for BBRY, in history and uses a bit of machine learning magic to create a unique score that represents the Wall St combined opinion for the stock.
As evidenced by the chart below, Confidence Meter suggests that analysts (experts?) have been generally bearish on BBRY. But over the last month or so, Confidence Meter has seen a couple of bumps up – going from 27% to 34% and then further up to the current value of 36%. Both upward movements were followed by concurrent or subsequent price rises. It will be interesting to see how the Confidence Meter behaves over the next 2 weeks to see if the stock is a good long-term bet or not.
BlackBerry Sentiment and Revenue Prediction
The sentiment for BlackBerry has been decidedly positive and quite consistent in the last month. A couple of negative spikes notwithstanding. Sentiment, at Stockal, measures what investors and media “feel” about BBRY. If you’re an investor, this is meant to give you a flavor what your peers are saying about the stock. We covered tons of social media conversations and hundreds of news articles about BlackBerry to analyze the sentiment for its stock. If the positive sentiment sustains, it will be interesting to observe if the price holds up too.
So here’s the one negative indicator on BlackBerry – Revenue Prediction. The below chart shows how BBRY has regularly fallen short of estimates, 6 times out of 8 to be precise. And the estimate for next Q is not looking all that great. The next Earnings date is not known yet, though, so there’s a chance the revenue prediction might improve – let’s wait and watch!
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